Judging a call by how it turned out has a name: resulting. A good call can lose, and a bad one can win.
Dumb Luck?Good call, or did it just turn out well?
Describe one everyday call - yours, a friend's, or a contestant's on a show. Note what was known before it, say how it turned out, and score it by what was knowable at the time. Then scratch the ticket: good call, dumb luck, bad beat or own goal.
1 The call
2 The ticket free
Score it yourself 0 to 3 each, by what was knowable then
A factor no note speaks to scores 1. Sound is 7 of 12 or more; the outcome never changes the score.
The page's free read
3 Score the call
One run scores the four factors from your notes - each with the note behind it, quoted word for word - adds the total, crosses it with how it turned out for the verdict, and names the weakest factor with one habit for next time. The page re-checks every quote and every sum. Calls about harm, health, crime or money at stake are politely declined.
The scored ticket - none yet
-Why this verdict
The luck in it
Next time
The page's check
4 Saved tickets
How the ticket scores
Poker players have a word for judging a decision by how it turned out: resulting. A good call can lose and a bad one can win, so the ticket keeps the two apart. Four factors are scored from what was knowable before the call - was the information used, was there time and was it used, were other options weighed, did the call fit the likely odds - 0 to 3 each, with 1 for a factor no note speaks to. A total of 7 of 12 or more is a sound call. Only then does the outcome come in: sound and well is a good call, shaky and well is dumb luck, sound and badly is a bad beat, shaky and badly is an own goal.
The page checks that the four factors come back in order, that every quote is word for word from its note, that a factor with no note scores 1, that the total is the sum, that the verdict follows the total and the outcome, and that the weakest factor really is the lowest (ties go to odds, then information, options, time). This is a thinking toy for fun, not professional, financial, medical or legal advice. Nothing you type is kept unless you press save.